The house edge has moved to Singapore for this casino operator. Why the stock is a buy now

• Marina Bay Sands in Singapore generated $788 million in adjusted property EBITDA in Q1 2025 (up 30% year-over-year), with an $8 billion expansion underway that one analyst values at $50 per share alone
• Las Vegas Sands controls approximately 25% of Macao's casino market and 70% of its convention space, positioning it to benefit as the market shifts from high-roller VIPs to higher-margin premium-mass market gamblers
• The stock trades at 8.2x next-12-months EBITDA, in line with U.S. casino peers despite operating in markets with materially higher revenue potential and limited competition (only 2 casinos allowed in Singapore)
• Potential upside exists in Texas if casino gambling is legalized, with the company exploring opportunities near a planned Dallas Mavericks arena on 104 acres in Far North Dallas

Summary: Las Vegas Sands - Asian Casino Operations Drive Buy Rating

Key Investment Thesis:

Las Vegas Sands (LVS), despite its Nevada headquarters, operates exclusively in Asian markets after exiting the U.S. in 2021. The company focuses on Macao and Singapore, where it holds dominant market positions in less competitive environments compared to the saturated U.S. gambling market.

Main Operations & Market Share:

• Macao: Controls approximately 25% of the market through a 75% stake in Sands China, positioning it as the market leader
• Singapore: Operates Marina Bay Sands (MBS), one of only two licensed casinos in the country

Financial Performance:

• MBS generated $788 million in adjusted property EBITDA in Q1, up 30% year-over-year
• Current EBITDA run rate approaching $3 billion annually
• Average room rates at MBS: $1,000/night
• Property attracted significant visitor numbers in recent quarters

Growth Catalysts:

1. Singapore Expansion: $8 billion new tower under construction with 570 suites (~$14 million per suite)
2. Macao Evolution: Shifting from VIP whales to premium-mass market gamblers, offering higher margins and lower volatility
3. Texas Opportunity: Potential entry if casino gambling is legalized; Mavericks' ownership exploring 104-acre entertainment complex

Valuation:

Trading at 8.2x next-12-months EBITDA, comparable to U.S. peers despite operating in higher-growth markets. Analyst consensus: 16 buy, 5 hold, 0 sell ratings with average price target of $69.23. Stifel values MBS alone at $50 per share.

Market Implications:

Analysts suggest current valuation underestimates the quality and scarcity value of LVS's Asian assets, particularly as Singapore posts record profits and Macao transitions to more sustainable, higher-margin business models.