Expectations on Kevin Warsh Speech This Week & June Jobs Report

• Fed's balance sheet reduction could be a form of tightening, potentially offsetting rate cuts, with a focus on long-term Treasury yields and housing affordability.
• A strong June Jobs Report could push the Fed towards a more hawkish stance, increasing the likelihood of a rate hike by year-end.
• Record high corporate bond issuance, especially from tech companies for AI buildouts, is noted, with concerns about supply-demand dynamics and potential spread widening.

The discussion focuses on potential Fed policy shifts, including balance sheet reduction versus rate hikes, and the communication style of a hypothetical new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh. The upcoming June Jobs Report is highlighted as a key factor influencing the Fed's hawkish stance, alongside rising corporate bond issuance, particularly from tech companies, which could impact credit spreads.