Weekend wars

• Brent crude traded under $73 per barrel on Monday, down more than 10% from the previous week, with oversupply concerns emerging as Gulf shipping resumed
• The dollar is on track for its biggest monthly gain against major currencies in nearly a year, driven by Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations ahead of Thursday's June payrolls report
• Tech sector jitters persist despite Micron's strong earnings, with Apple warning on soaring memory costs and regulatory delays affecting OpenAI's planned IPO

Market Summary: Weekend Wars

Key Developments

Geopolitical Tensions: U.S. launched strikes on Iran over the weekend in response to attacks on Gulf shipping, but both sides quickly agreed to halt hostilities. Despite the brief escalation, oil markets showed minimal reaction.

Oil Markets: Brent crude traded under $73 per barrel Monday morning, down over 10% from the previous week. Markets are experiencing oversupply conditions as Gulf shipping resumes, with prices sliding to pre-war levels.

Tech Sector Volatility: The technology sector remains under pressure following last week's selloff, primarily driven by profit-taking after a strong quarter for chip stocks. Key concerns include:

• Apple issued warnings about soaring memory costs
• Delays reported for OpenAI's planned IPO
• Mixed sentiment despite Micron Technology's strong earnings report

Currency Markets: The U.S. dollar is on track for its largest monthly gain against major currencies in nearly a year, supported by Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations. The Japanese yen continues hovering near 40-year lows, with speculative short positions reaching extremes not seen since 2024.

Upcoming Catalysts: Markets face a shortened trading week due to Friday's Independence Day holiday. Key events include:

• June payrolls report (Thursday) - critical for Fed policy outlook
• Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speech Wednesday at ECB symposium in Portugal
• Rate hike anticipated by October according to futures markets

UK Politics: Andy Burnham, leading UK prime minister contender, expected to outline government plans focusing on living standards and regional power distribution.

Asian markets remained jittery Monday, while Wall Street futures and European markets showed stability.