Oil tankers with 35 million barrels exited Persian Gulf through Strait of Hormuz since Iran deal

CNBC | June 24, 2026 at 04:16 PM UTC
Neutral 83% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • The U.S. Navy lifted its blockade of Iran on June 18, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions on Iranian oil sales through August
  • The Joint Maritime Information Center downgraded the threat level for ships crossing Hormuz from 'critical' to 'moderate' following implementation of the U.S.-Iran agreement
  • Over 11,000 seafarers remain stuck in the Persian Gulf, with the UN's International Maritime Organization implementing an evacuation plan backed by Iran, Oman, the U.S., and other Gulf states

AI Summary

Summary: Oil Flows Resume Through Strait of Hormuz Following U.S.-Iran Agreement

Key Developments:

At least 20 oil tankers carrying 35 million barrels have exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz since a U.S.-Iran deal reopened the critical maritime passage, according to Kpler data. These non-Iranian vessels had been stranded for over three months after Tehran effectively closed the strait early in an unspecified conflict.

Critical Figures:

  • Current oil shipments through Hormuz: approximately 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd)
  • June flows: highest since the February 28 U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran
  • Pre-war levels: 15 million bpd (current flows remain significantly below this benchmark)
  • Iranian tankers: 21 million barrels exited in June
  • Additional shipments: 51 million barrels from tankers loaded since late April

Timeline:

  • February 28: U.S. and Israel attacked Iran
  • June 4: Threat level classified as "critical"
  • June 18: U.S. Navy lifted Iran blockade
  • Current: Threat level downgraded to "moderate"
  • August: Treasury Department sanctions waiver extends through this month

Market Implications:

The reopening significantly improves global oil supply chains, particularly for Asian markets where most shipments are destined (arrival expected early August). However, current export levels remain 68% below pre-war capacity, suggesting continued supply constraints. S&P Global projects oil prices in the $70-$85 range.

The International Maritime Organization announced evacuation plans for 11,000+ stranded seafarers, backed by Iran, Oman, the U.S., and Gulf states, indicating regional cooperation and improving maritime security conditions.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 80%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Neutral 83%