Oil Price Forecast: Brent and WTI Slide as U.S.-Iran Deal Pressures Crude

• WTI crude broke below $80 and is testing long-term support at $66-$74, while Brent broke its $80 support level and faces next support at $72-$74
• U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since June 1983, indicating tight supply conditions that could limit further downside
• Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below normal levels despite some resumption, keeping geopolitical risk premium partially intact and prices vulnerable to Middle East developments

Summary

Market Movement

Oil prices declined sharply on June 23, 2026, with Brent crude falling 4.71% to $78.80 and WTI dropping 5.27% to below $74.30. Both benchmarks broke critical support levels following progress in U.S.-Iran peace negotiations, which reduced geopolitical risk premiums.

Key Drivers

The primary catalyst was resumed U.S.-Iran peace talks, though traders await confirmation the deal will hold. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical concern—while some tankers resumed passage Monday, traffic hasn't returned to normal levels, creating ongoing supply uncertainty. Additionally, U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell to their lowest level since June 1983, indicating tight supply conditions following the U.S.-Iran conflict.

Technical Analysis

WTI crude broke below $80 after peaking at $120, now testing long-term support at $66-$74. The RSI entered oversold territory for the first time since December 2024. Further downside targets $60, with resistance now at $80. Recovery requires a break above $87.

Brent crude breached the 200-day SMA at $82, targeting $72-$74 support. A break below $72 would push prices toward $67.50. The weekly chart shows critical support at $80 has failed, with next downside level at $68.

Market Outlook

Volatility is expected to persist due to Middle East uncertainties. Downside pressure continues if the Strait normalizes and tensions ease. However, any deal collapse, delayed inspections, or shipping disruptions could trigger rapid upward price movements as war premiums rebuild. Tight supply conditions may ultimately limit downside potential.