Natural Gas, WTI Oil, Brent Oil Forecasts – Oil Retreats Amid Progress In U.S. – Iran Talks

• WTI crude tested $74.00 support and Brent crude tested $78.00 as oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz at the fastest pace since the Middle East conflict began
• U.S. Treasury waived sanctions for Iranian oil and lifted the naval blockade of Iranian ports, allowing Iran to boost exports to support its devastated economy
• Natural gas moved higher toward resistance at $3.20-$3.25 as traders anticipated increased cooling demand from hotter-than-expected weather forecasts

Market Summary: Energy Markets React to U.S.-Iran Diplomacy

Key Developments

Oil prices retreated sharply on June 22, 2026, as diplomatic progress between the U.S. and Iran raised prospects for increased Iranian crude exports. Vice President JD Vance characterized negotiations as "very good," while the U.S. Treasury waived sanctions on Iranian oil and lifted the naval blockade of Iranian ports.

Price Movements

WTI Crude: Fell 4.69%, testing the $74.00 level after breaking below support at $76.50-$77.00. The commodity faces potential further downside toward $70.50-$71.00 if current levels fail to hold, with RSI nearing oversold territory.

Brent Crude: Declined 4.08%, testing support at $77.00-$77.50. A break below could push prices toward $72.00-$72.50. Upside momentum requires a move above resistance at $81.00-$81.50.

Natural Gas: Rose 0.72% to $3.20-$3.25, supported by hotter weather forecasts indicating increased cooling demand. A sustained break above $3.25 could target $3.40-$3.45.

Market Implications

Oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is flowing at the fastest pace since the Middle East conflict began, reflecting easing geopolitical tensions. Both nations appear motivated to keep the strait open—Iran needs revenue for its struggling economy, while the U.S. seeks to reduce inflationary pressure from high oil prices.

The primary obstacle remains Israel's operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, though mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have reportedly eased tensions. However, neither Israel nor Hezbollah participates in current negotiations, creating uncertainty about a comprehensive regional deal.