Can anyone join Musk in the trillionaire club? Zuckerberg has best shot, according to prediction markets

• Kalshi traders give Zuckerberg a 32% chance of becoming the second trillionaire, followed by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at 21% and Dell CEO Michael Dell at 6%
• The prediction contracts expire in 2033, and Forbes net worth estimates are used to determine contract outcomes, with currently low trading volume of just over $7,500
• An Oxfam report from January 2025 estimated there would be multiple trillionaires within a decade, suggesting more may join the club despite low prediction market odds

Summary

Key Development: Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire on June 12 following SpaceX's public market debut. Prediction market traders are now speculating on who might be next to reach this milestone.

Leading Contenders:

• Mark Zuckerberg (Meta CEO) has the highest probability at 32%, though still below 50%. His current net worth stands at just under $200 billion, requiring a quadrupling to reach trillionaire status.
• Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) ranks second with 21% odds and a net worth slightly above $180 billion.
• Michael Dell (Dell CEO) holds third place at 6% probability, despite having the highest current net worth among the three at $240 billion.

Market Details:

The predictions come from Kalshi, a prediction market platform, with contracts expiring by 2033. Trading volume remains modest at just over $7,500. Kalshi uses Forbes' net worth estimates to determine contract outcomes.

Broader Context:

An Oxfam report from January 2025 projected multiple trillionaires could emerge within a decade, suggesting the exclusive club may expand beyond Musk sooner than prediction markets indicate.

Implications:

The speculation highlights the concentration of wealth among tech billionaires and the extraordinary valuations of their companies. Success would require sustained growth in Meta, Nvidia, and Dell stock prices, along with maintaining significant equity stakes. The low probabilities reflect the substantial hurdles to achieving such unprecedented wealth levels.

*Note: CNBC disclosed a commercial relationship with Kalshi involving customer acquisition and minority investment.*