Overhead Resistance Levels That Need to Be on Your Radar

• The SPX peaked around 7,615 in early June before pulling back, with key support identified at 7,320 (the 50-day moving average); the 10-day put/call ratio surged from 0.375 to 0.56, indicating a rapid cooling of trader optimism
• Bullish factors include $8-9 trillion in money market funds that could flow into equities, elevated short interest that may fuel covering rallies, and the market's ability to tolerate higher rates as long as economic strength persists
• Oil price declines following a U.S.-Iran deal and new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance (tripling odds of two rate hikes to 33%) have created mixed conditions, though the SPX has shown resilience during rising 10-year yields

Summary

Key Market Levels and Technical Analysis:

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is testing critical resistance levels, trading at 7,500.58 as of June 22, 2026. Senior analyst Todd Salamone identifies 7,530 (10% above 2025's close) and 7,615 (20% above March lows) as key overhead resistance points where profit-taking has occurred. The first support level is marked at 7,320, coinciding with the 50-day moving average.

Sentiment Shift:

A dramatic reversal in options market sentiment has occurred since early May. The 10-day put-to-call ratio among equity option buyers surged nearly 50%, from 0.375 on June 4 to 0.56, indicating a shift from extreme optimism to neutral positioning. This sentiment reset is viewed as bullish, suggesting renewed upside potential as "fuel is back in the tank."

Market Catalysts:

• A U.S.-Iran peace deal announced last week has reduced oil prices and inflationary concerns
• The 10-year Treasury yield found support at 4.40% near its 50-day moving average
• New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone, with Fed funds futures now pricing 33% odds of two rate hikes by year-end (up from 11% a month ago)
• BlackRock's Rick Rieder notes $8-9 trillion in money market funds available for potential market deployment

Longer-Term Outlook:

Despite near-term resistance, bullish factors include substantial sideline cash and elevated short interest that could fuel rallies. The SPX has demonstrated resilience, weathering the sentiment shift without significant technical deterioration, suggesting underlying market strength as the economy remains robust.