Energy markets are 'sleepwalking towards a cliff', says analyst

• US embargo on Iran was mostly effective, but Iranian ships are now able to transit through the Strait of Hormuz, though not at normal levels.
• Overall traffic of essential products like oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and plastics through the Strait remains significantly constrained.
• Markets are complacent, pricing in normalization of flows that is not occurring, leading to a potential supply shock in the near future (weeks to a month).
• The 60-day negotiation period from the U.S.-Iran MOU is insufficient to return to normalized global energy trade.

Analyst Ellen Wald warns that energy markets are 'sleepwalking towards a cliff' due to significantly constrained flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite some transit, the overall volume of oil, natural gas, fertilizers, and plastics is far from normal, and markets are underestimating the impending supply shock.