China's May refined oil exports rise from April under restrictions, Australia receives agreed volume
Key Points
- Gasoline exports improved slightly to 32,838 tons in May from April's decade-low of 23,400 tons, with Myanmar the only destination outside Hong Kong and Macau
- Diesel exports excluding Hong Kong and Macau more than doubled from April to 216,196 tons, with Bangladesh (62,772 tons) and Sri Lanka (28,700 tons) as major recipients, while Australia received 20,255 tons
- Jet fuel exports fell 61% year-over-year to 499,388 tons but rose 20% from April, with Vietnam as the largest recipient following bilateral discussions in May
AI Summary
Summary: China's May Refined Oil Exports Rise from April Under Restrictions
Key Developments:
China's refined oil exports (gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel) increased 40% month-over-month in May compared to April, but remained 69% below year-ago levels due to export restrictions implemented during the Iran war to protect domestic supply.
Product-Specific Data:
*Gasoline:* Exports rose marginally to 32,838 metric tons in May from April's decade-low of 23,400 tons. Myanmar was the only destination outside Hong Kong and Macau, receiving 8,405 tons.
*Diesel:* May exports increased 53% from April, more than doubling to 216,196 tons (excluding Hong Kong/Macau). Key destinations included Bangladesh (62,772 tons), Sri Lanka (28,700 tons), and Southeast Asian nations totaling 77,079 tons. Australia was the sole non-Asian importer at 20,255 tons.
*Biodiesel:* Exports climbed 11.5% to 43,636 tons, primarily to the Netherlands and Belgium. Export restriction applicability remains unclear.
*Jet Fuel:* Exports fell 61% year-over-year to 499,388 tons but rose 20% from April. Vietnam was the largest recipient per prior bilateral agreements.
Market Implications:
The export restrictions exclude international ship/plane refueling and shipments to Hong Kong and Macau, where volumes remained stable. The significant year-over-year declines reflect China's prioritization of domestic energy security amid geopolitical tensions. Southeast and South Asian markets continue as primary destinations for limited export volumes, while Australia maintains strategic diesel supply agreements.
The data underscores China's shift toward domestic supply protection, potentially creating supply gaps for Asian importers previously dependent on Chinese refined products.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 75% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Neutral | 68% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Neutral | 85% |
| Consensus | Neutral | 76% |