Oil tanker traffic in Strait of Hormuz jumps after U.S. and Iran implement deal to open sea lane

• Traffic reached 20 tankers on Thursday, the highest since June 2, but still significantly below prewar levels when more than 100 ships including dozens of tankers transited daily
• Three Saudi Arabian and one UAE very large crude carriers (VLCCs) crossed, each capable of hauling up to 2 million barrels of oil, while five Iranian supertankers loaded with oil departed the region
• The majority of ships (18 of 20 tankers) followed Iran's designated route rather than the International Maritime Organization route, raising questions about future governance after the 60-day toll-free period expires

Summary: Oil Tanker Traffic Surges Through Strait of Hormuz Following U.S.-Iran Agreement

Key Developments:

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly increased following a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the critical sea lane. At least 20 tankers transited the strait on Thursday—the highest level since June 2, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler. However, traffic remains well below prewar levels when over 100 ships, including dozens of tankers, crossed daily.

Traffic Details:

Total vessel count reached 25 on Thursday, including tankers, cargo, container, and other ship classes. Crossings were balanced with 13 westbound and 12 eastbound transits. Four very large crude carriers (VLCCs)—capable of hauling up to 2 million barrels of oil each—from Saudi Arabia and the UAE successfully crossed.

Iranian Operations:

Iranian supertankers are reactivating their transponders after going dark during the conflict. Five Iranian VLCCs loaded with oil departed the region on Friday, suggesting a gradual return to normal crude trade patterns.

Route Compliance:

Eighteen vessels followed Iran's designated route through Hormuz, while only one used the International Maritime Organization's route. Six ships' routes remain unconfirmed.

Deal Terms:

Under the agreement, the U.S. Navy has ceased blocking Iranian traffic, while Iran is offering toll-free passage for 60 days. After this period, Iran will negotiate with Oman and Gulf states on strait administration, raising questions about future governance and potential toll imposition.

Market Implications:

The reopening signals improving regional stability and potential normalization of global oil supply chains, though long-term governance remains uncertain.