U.S.-Iran deal will stick despite being a ‘bad, bad deal', says David Roche

• The U.S.-Iran deal is likely to stick as both the U.S. (for lower oil prices) and Iran (for dollar flow) have strong incentives.
• This will lead to lower oil prices, lower inflation, and central banks holding rates (with exceptions like the ECB and Japan).
• Geopolitically, the deal is 'really bad' as it empowers Iran, increases Middle East instability, and will not curb Iran's nuclear ambitions.
• Oil supply will increase through both the Red Sea and the Straits of Hormuz, with existing stocks also entering the market, creating a 'normal' look for traders.

David Roche of Quantum Strategy believes the U.S.-Iran deal will stick due to mutual incentives, leading to lower oil prices and inflation, which is 'good news' for markets. However, he views the deal as strategically 'bad, bad' due to increased Middle East instability and Iran's empowerment, warning of long-term geopolitical risks despite immediate oil flow.