Kalshi Traders Predict May Jobs Report to Exceed Expectations

• Kalshi traders put a 49% chance that over 100,000 new jobs will be added in May, up from 32% before April's report, with a 40% probability of surpassing 110,000 jobs
• The consensus forecast of 90,000 jobs reflects an anticipated slowdown from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000, with the past six months averaging just 55,000 monthly payroll gains
• Hourly earnings are expected to increase 3.4% annually (down from 3.6% in April) and 0.3% month-over-month, with markets expecting the Fed to hold rates steady at the upcoming June meeting

Summary: Kalshi Traders Predict May Jobs Report to Exceed Expectations

Key Predictions:

Traders on Kalshi are assigning a 56% probability that May's nonfarm payrolls report will exceed Wall Street consensus estimates. Following April's jobs data release, odds of surpassing 100,000 new jobs jumped from 32% to 45% by May 9. Currently, traders place a 49% chance of exceeding 100,000 jobs and a 40% probability of surpassing 110,000 new positions.

Consensus Expectations:

Dow Jones estimates May nonfarm payrolls at 90,000 jobs, representing a decline from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000 (the year's highest). RBC Economics projects a slightly higher 99,000 jobs added, with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. Over the past six months, monthly payroll gains have averaged just 55,000.

Wage Growth Data:

Economists expect annual hourly earnings growth to moderate to 3.4% from April's 3.6%, while month-over-month wage growth is projected to rise 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously.

Market Implications:

The jobs report, scheduled for release this Friday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, will be the first under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's leadership. The data arrives ahead of the Federal Reserve's June 16-17 meeting, where the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold rates steady. However, the employment figures could influence monetary policy decisions.

Bottom Line:

Despite expectations for continued labor market deceleration, prediction markets suggest resilience, with traders betting on an upside surprise that could impact Fed policy considerations in the near term.