OPEC+ Plans July Output Increase Despite Hormuz Tensions, Sources Report

• Seven OPEC+ members will likely increase their July target by 188,000 bpd, continuing the unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut agreed in 2023, with about 567,000 bpd remaining to be restored
• Actual OPEC+ production has collapsed to 33.19 million bpd in April versus 42.77 million bpd in February due to the Strait of Hormuz closure blocking Gulf member exports
• The planned increase follows the UAE's unexpected departure in May after almost 60 years of OPEC membership, requiring June targets to be adjusted down from 206,000 bpd to 188,000 bpd

OPEC+ Plans July Output Increase Despite Hormuz Tensions

Key Developments:

OPEC+ is expected to approve a production target increase of 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for July when meeting on Sunday, June 7, 2026, according to three sources. This comes despite the Strait of Hormuz closure preventing several members from meeting current quotas.

Critical Facts:

• Seven core OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Oman) will participate in the virtual ministerial meeting
• The group's actual production collapsed to 33.19 million bpd in April from 42.77 million bpd in February due to Gulf export disruptions
• Target quotas increased by nearly 600,000 bpd from April to June, though actual delivery has been severely constrained
• The UAE's unexpected exit in May after almost 60 years of OPEC membership has complicated calculations

Strategic Context:

The planned increase represents the continued unwinding of a 1.65 million bpd production cut agreed in 2023 by eight members. Following the UAE's departure and adjusting for the July increase, approximately 567,000 bpd of the original cut remains to be restored to the market. At the current pace of ~188,000 bpd monthly increases, the full unwinding should complete by September.

Market Implications:

The quota increase signals OPEC+'s attempt to project stability and return to "business as usual" despite significant geopolitical disruptions. However, the substantial gap between targets and actual production due to the Hormuz situation creates uncertainty about real supply levels. Technical meetings are scheduled in Vienna on June 1-2, with two additional ministerial meetings expected to maintain current policy unchanged.