Markets are 'way too optimistic' around Iran deal prospects: Bruegel

• Markets are overly optimistic regarding a U.S.-Iran deal, despite over 90 days of promises without significant progress.
• Iran retains significant capabilities, including control over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear enriched material, which it is unlikely to relinquish.
• A 'good deal' would require fundamental changes that are currently unrealistic, such as Iran giving up strategic capacities, or a highly risky military intervention.
• The current U.S. administration is perceived as 'rich in promises, poor in delivery' on such international agreements.
• Policymakers should focus on limiting damage and addressing potential energy scarcity, including investing in renewable energy, rather than relying on an elusive deal.

Guntram Wolff believes financial markets are excessively optimistic about a U.S.-Iran deal, citing Iran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz and nuclear enrichment capabilities. He suggests that a truly 'good deal' is unlikely without fundamental shifts or risky military action, leading to continued energy market uncertainty and a need for policymakers to focus on damage limitation and renewable energy investments.