Wall Street wants the Iran war to end, but it's also the reason why it isn't ending: Amos Hochstein

CNBC Television | May 28, 2026 at 12:31 PM UTC
Bearish 95% Confidence
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Key Points

  • U.S. is currently negotiating an 'open for open' memorandum of understanding (MOU) to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was open before the conflict.
  • The speaker views the likelihood of President Trump's optimistic scenario (Abraham Accords, no nuclear material, open Strait) as well below 10%.
  • U.S. gasoline inventories are drawing down, nearing a point where they can no longer be drawn, which will remove a critical buffer for the U.S. economy.
  • Iran is expected to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz regardless of any deal, as confirmed by regional leaders.

AI Summary

Amos Hochstein discusses the U.S.-Iran conflict, expressing pessimism about current negotiations. He highlights the irony that Wall Street's belief in a quick resolution is driving down oil prices, which in turn diminishes U.S. leverage. Hochstein believes Iran will maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz regardless of any deal and warns of rapidly depleting U.S. gasoline inventories.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 95%