Exclusive: China works on AI token futures market, sources say, in race with US

• Shanghai Futures Exchange is in early design stages for token futures contracts, taking a different approach than U.S. exchanges (CME Group and ICE) which are launching GPU compute power futures
• China's daily AI token usage exploded from minimal levels in early 2024 to over 140 trillion by end of March 2026, a 1,000-fold increase
• Chinese experts view token futures as critical to competing with the U.S. in both AI technology and financial markets, with some calling for accelerated launch despite market fragmentation obstacles

Summary: China Developing AI Token Futures Market to Compete with U.S.

China is designing a futures market for AI tokens through the Shanghai Futures Exchange, marking a strategic move in the escalating AI competition with the United States, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Key Development:

The Shanghai Futures Exchange is in early stages of creating futures contracts based on AI tokens—the smallest units of information processed by AI models. This contrasts with U.S. exchanges CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, which are developing GPU compute futures tied to computing power rental costs.

Critical Data Points:

• China's daily token usage has surged 1,000-fold since early 2024, reaching over 140 trillion by March 2026
• Token futures expected to launch within three to five years, though timelines remain uncertain
• December 2025: China published compute supply indices that could serve as underlying benchmarks for futures contracts

Market Implications:

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink identified surging token demand as potentially creating an entirely new asset class. These derivatives would enable companies across the AI supply chain to hedge computing costs—increasingly critical as computing power shortages have forced Chinese AI models to ration user access in recent months.

Strategic Context:

Chinese experts emphasize the urgency of launching token futures to maintain competitiveness in both technological and financial domains. Zhang Yunquan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences proposed compute futures to China's parliament in March, while Yilei Shao of Shanghai AI-Finance School warned that China should act "sooner rather than later" given the strategic importance of AI derivatives.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange and China Securities Regulatory Commission have not commented on the plan, which remains subject to regulatory approval and potential changes.