European stocks to open lower as traders assess chances of Iran peace deal

• U.K. stocks expected to open down 0.9%, Germany down 1.1%, France down 1%, and Italy down 0.6% according to IG data
• U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated talks with Iran are 'progressing' while U.S. forces launched fresh strikes in Iran on Wednesday, described as 'defensive' to maintain ceasefire
• Investors await April's U.S. personal consumption expenditure price index at 8:30 a.m. ET, with expectations of 0.5% monthly and 3.8% yearly increase

Summary: European Stocks Set to Decline Amid Iran Peace Deal Uncertainty

European equity markets are poised for a negative open Thursday, with key indices expected to decline as investors evaluate conflicting signals regarding potential U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. The UK's main index is forecast to open 0.9% lower, Germany's down 1.1%, France's down 1%, and Italy's down 0.6%, according to IG data.

Key Developments:

Mixed messages from U.S.-Iranian negotiations are creating market uncertainty. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated talks are "progressing" and that the U.S. favors diplomatic solutions. However, contradictory signals persist: while Reuters reported Tehran committed to restoring commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within one month of any agreement, the White House dismissed this as "complete fabrication" via social media.

Adding to volatility, U.S. forces conducted fresh strikes in Iran on Wednesday, which officials described as "measured, purely defensive, and intended to maintain the ceasefire."

Market Implications:

European markets are following Asian counterparts lower as geopolitical tensions weigh on investor sentiment. The uncertainty surrounding critical Middle Eastern shipping routes, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, continues to influence global markets.

In the U.S., futures remained relatively stable overnight as traders await April's Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect a 0.5% month-over-month increase and 3.8% year-over-year rise.

Data Releases:

No major European earnings are scheduled Thursday. European business and consumer confidence data will be released during the session.