Trump's domestic shipping waiver has not cut gasoline prices by much, data shows

• California received 60% of waiver shipments (3 million barrels), but this represents only 6% of the state's daily gasoline consumption of 36 million gallons
• Cost savings were minimal: shipping via foreign vessels saved only 6.6 cents per gallon (1% of California's $6.11/gallon price) compared to Jones Act tankers
• An unintended consequence emerged as U.S. tankers began pursuing international routes, with at least one Alaska crude tanker shipping to South Korea for the first time since 2014, potentially tightening domestic vessel availability

Summary

President Trump's March waiver of the Jones Act, allowing foreign-flagged vessels to transport oil and fuel between U.S. ports, has failed to significantly reduce gasoline prices despite being the broadest suspension in the law's century-long history. The waiver aimed to lower fuel costs amid a U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that began in late February, which drove national gas prices to $4.49 per gallon (from under $3 pre-war) and California prices to $6.11 per gallon.

Key Figures:

• In two months, refiners including Valero and Phillips 66 used the exemption approximately 50 times
• Moved 2.6 million barrels of crude and 7.5 million barrels of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel
• Total shipments: 84,000 barrels per day—less than 1% of 8.75 million barrels consumed daily nationwide
• California received 60% of waiver shipments (3 million barrels), representing only 6% of state's daily consumption
• Potential savings: 6.6 cents per gallon (1% of California prices) on Gulf Coast-to-West Coast routes

Limited Impact Reasons:

• Elevated international freight rates due to vessels trapped in Strait of Hormuz
• Relatively small volumes transported compared to total consumption
• On East Coast routes, Jones Act tankers remained cheaper than foreign vessels

Market Implications:

Unintended consequences emerged as U.S. tankers pursued international business—one Alaskan crude tanker made its first international voyage since 2014. This shift could strain domestic tanker availability. The White House claims success and remains open to extensions, while Jones Act supporters argue the waiver hasn't delivered promised price relief. Political pressure continues as Republicans face November midterm elections with inflation concerns.