Open interest in natural gas and power on ICE hits record in May
Key Points
- Global natural gas open interest hit a record 48 million contracts on May 22, up 11% year-over-year, while global power markets reached 4 million contracts on May 25, up 10% annually
- North American natural gas futures and options open interest reached a record 41.4 million contracts, also marking an 11% year-over-year increase
- The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war has tightened supplies and increased demand for alternatives to Middle Eastern gas, alongside growing data center energy requirements
AI Summary
Summary: ICE Reports Record Natural Gas and Power Trading Activity in May
Key Developments:
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported record-breaking liquidity across its global natural gas and power markets in May 2026, driven by significant energy market disruption. Total open interest across ICE's futures and options markets reached an all-time high of 130.5 million contracts.
Specific Metrics:
- Global natural gas open interest hit a record 48 million contracts on May 22, up 11% year-over-year
- Global power markets reached 4 million contracts on May 25, up 10% annually
- North American natural gas futures and options open interest peaked at 41.4 million contracts on May 22, an 11% year-over-year increase
Market Drivers:
The unprecedented activity stems from an Iran war that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, causing severe energy market disruption and supply tightening. This has increased demand for alternatives to Middle Eastern gas. ICE executive Trabue Bland also cited "shifting global LNG trade routes" and rising demand from data centers as contributing factors.
Market Implications:
The record trading volumes reflect heightened hedging activity as market participants navigate:
- Regional and international price volatility
- Pipeline constraints
- Infrastructure investment needs
- Evolving energy requirements
The surge in open interest indicates increased market participation and uncertainty, suggesting traders are actively positioning for continued energy supply chain disruptions. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz represents a critical geopolitical risk with far-reaching implications for global energy markets, particularly benefiting North American natural gas as an alternative supply source.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Bullish | 80% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 70% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 80% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 76% |