It will take 4 months for Hormuz flows to recover to 80% of prewar levels, says RBC's Helima Croft

• Iran has relaxed its grip on the Strait of Hormuz, allowing a mixed fleet of 26 vessels to pass, though this is far below pre-war levels of 100 ships daily.
• Dr. Sultan Al Jaber of the UAE stated that even if the conflict ends tomorrow, it would take four months for oil flows through Hormuz to recover to 80% of pre-war levels.
• The UAE is actively building a second oil pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, which is 50% complete and expected to be operational by 2027, indicating a long-term strategy to reduce reliance on the Strait.
• Iran's actions suggest a desire to normalize its 'toll booth' control over the waterway, potentially charging fees for passage, while oil prices are currently falling amid mixed signals on the conflict.

RBC's Helima Croft discusses the volatile situation in the Strait of Hormuz, noting Iran's temporary relaxation of its grip on shipping. Despite this, oil flows are projected to take four months to recover to 80% of pre-war levels, and the UAE is accelerating efforts to build bypass pipelines, highlighting ongoing geopolitical risks and long-term shifts in energy infrastructure.