Nasdaq to lead further losses after Trump says he called off Iran strikes

Proactive Investors | May 19, 2026 at 12:37 PM UTC
Bearish 82% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Nasdaq 100 futures pointed to 0.8% drop, S&P 500 futures down 0.4%, and Dow futures down 0.3% amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty
  • Iran called Washington's demands 'unrealistic' and US officials said Iran's proposal fell short, dimming prospects for breakthrough in negotiations
  • WTI crude remained above $108/barrel and 10-year Treasury yields hovered above 4.6%, with light economic calendar meaning geopolitical headlines will likely remain dominant market driver

AI Summary

Market Summary: US Futures Drop on Iran Tensions

Market Movement:

US stock futures declined ahead of Tuesday's opening, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.8%, S&P 500 futures off 0.4%, and Dow Jones futures falling 0.3%. This followed Monday's mixed session where the Nasdaq dropped 0.5% to 26,091, the S&P 500 fell to 7,403, and the Dow rose 0.3% to 49,686.

Key Geopolitical Development:

President Trump announced he called off planned military strikes against Iran following appeals from Gulf allies including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. However, he warned the US military remained prepared for "a full, large scale assault" if negotiations fail. Iran's Tasnim news agency called Washington's demands "unrealistic," while US officials reportedly view Iran's latest proposal as insufficient.

Market Impact:

Oil prices remain elevated with WTI crude futures holding above $108 per barrel. Ten-year Treasury yields continue hovering above 4.6%, weighing particularly on technology and semiconductor stocks. Analyst Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com noted markets are "no longer taking Donald Trump entirely at his word" and expect no meaningful moves until a genuine breakthrough occurs.

Outlook:

With a light US economic calendar ahead, geopolitical headlines will likely remain the dominant market driver. Investors are monitoring the G7 summit in Paris, though expectations for breakthroughs remain limited.

Corporate News:

Elon Musk dropped his case against OpenAI on Monday, removing the final obstacle to Sam Altman's anticipated $1 trillion IPO later this year. Investors also await upcoming IPOs for OpenAI and SpaceX.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 80%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 90%
Consensus Bearish 82%