JP Morgan could scrap £3bn London HQ if Starmer is replaced by PM ‘hostile to banks'

The Guardian | May 12, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
Bearish 77% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • The new tower would house over half of JPMorgan's 23,000 UK staff and was approved after strong banking sector lobbying against tax increases in Reeves' autumn budget
  • Dimon stated plans depend on 'a continuing positive business environment' and could be reversed 'if they become hostile to banks again,' referencing the bank surcharge and bank levy imposed after 2008
  • JPMorgan has requested business rate discounts from Tower Hamlets council despite reporting $55bn (£43bn) profit in 2025, while City sources warn political instability could derail planned stock market flotations

AI Summary

Summary

Key Development:

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon threatened to cancel the bank's £3 billion Canary Wharf headquarters project if UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is replaced by a leader "hostile to banks." The construction, greenlit in November following Rachel Reeves' autumn budget, would house over half of JPMorgan's 23,000 UK staff.

Critical Statements:

Dimon told Bloomberg TV the project would be threatened "not by political instability, but if they become hostile to banks again." He referenced approximately $10 billion (£7.7bn) in extra taxes JPMorgan has paid due to UK bank-specific levies—the bank surcharge on profits and bank levy on balance sheets—both introduced after the 2008 financial crisis.

Financial Context:

Despite recording $54 billion (£43bn) profit in 2025, JPMorgan has requested business rate discounts from Tower Hamlets council. The approval came after successful banking sector lobbying prevented tax hikes in Reeves' budget.

Market Implications:

Current political turmoil surrounding Starmer is causing concern across London's financial sector. Investment banking sources warn that IPOs "could be derailed" by leadership instability, potentially disrupting planned stock market flotations. UK bank shares have already been impacted by uncertainty over Starmer's future.

Political Background:

While Dimon praised Starmer as a "smart guy" and previously commended both the PM and Chancellor Reeves, he emphasized in November that the tower plan depends on "a continuing positive business environment in the UK." City sources expressed concerns about repeating the Conservative party's recent pattern of rotating prime ministers, fearing damage to market stability and growth initiatives.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 72%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 75%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 85%
Consensus Bearish 77%