The first wave of tariff refunds have begun flowing in

CNBC | May 12, 2026 at 06:25 PM UTC
Bullish 76% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • Oshkosh Corporation and Basic Fun confirmed receiving initial payments, with Basic Fun receiving 5% of its total claim and planning to use funds for salary increases and business reinvestment
  • CBP expects to process $35.46 billion in refunds across 8.3 million shipments, with the first phase covering entries finalized within the past 80 days
  • Trump criticized the refund requirement in a radio interview, saying 'We were taking in fortunes from people that hate us' and indicated his administration would contest the repayments

AI Summary

Summary: Tariff Refunds Begin Following Supreme Court Ruling

Key Developments:

Following the Supreme Court's ruling that declared some of President Trump's tariffs unconstitutional, the first wave of refund payments began reaching companies on Tuesday. U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) anticipates paying $35.46 billion in refunds covering 8.3 million shipments as of Monday.

Companies Affected:

  • Oshkosh Corporation: CFO Matt Field confirmed the retailer has started receiving payments but hasn't verified the total refund amount
  • Basic Fun (manufacturer of Care Bears and Tonka trucks): CEO Jay Foreman reported receiving approximately 5% of total claims on early invoices, with plans to reinvest funds in employee salaries, promotions, and business operations

Process Details:

The Supreme Court ruled against Trump's tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 in February. Companies subsequently filed refund claims through CBP's Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries portal. The initial phase covers entries finalized within the past 80 days, though full processing may take months.

Logistics companies including DHL and FedEx previously indicated they would automatically process refunds for customers.

Political Response:

President Trump criticized the refund situation in a Tuesday radio interview, calling it "crazy" and stating "In theory, you have to pay the tariffs back. We'll fight that."

Market Implications:

The refunds provide cash flow relief during a challenging period, particularly for toy manufacturers facing seasonal pressures. Companies plan to reinvest funds in operations and workforce compensation to offset cost-of-living increases.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bullish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Neutral 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 75%
Consensus Bullish 76%