A Trump-Xi deal could revive US energy exports to China

• Chinese imports of U.S. LNG plummeted from 4.15 million tons in 2024 to just 26,000 tons in 2025 after China imposed a 25% tariff, while Chinese buyers continue honoring long-term contracts by reselling cargoes to Europe to avoid domestic tariffs.
• China has imported zero U.S. crude oil since May 2025 due to a 20% tariff, despite previously importing 193,000 barrels per day worth $6 billion in 2024, and has shifted sourcing to Canada and Brazil.
• The U.S. remains China's sole supplier of ethane and largest propane supplier even during the trade war, with ethane imports rising 50% year-over-year in Q1 2026, highlighting China's dependence on these petrochemical feedstocks.

Summary: Trump-Xi Summit Could Restore US Energy Exports to China

President Trump will meet with President Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15, 2026, where a deal to resume Chinese purchases of US energy products is under consideration. Trade war tariffs have severely curtailed US-China energy trade, which was valued at $8.4 billion in 2024.

Key Developments by Sector:

LNG: Chinese imports of US liquefied natural gas plummeted from 8.98 million tons in 2021 (making the US China's third-largest supplier) to just 26,000 tons in 2025 after China imposed 25% tariffs. Despite this, Chinese buyers like PetroChina and CNOOC are honoring long-term contracts signed between 2021-2023, with Rystad Energy estimating 12 million tons contracted for 2026—though these cargoes are being resold to Europe to avoid tariffs. Analysts note US LNG would be cheaper than Asian spot cargoes if the 25% tariff were removed, though demand growth remains sluggish.

Oil: The US has never been a major crude supplier to China. Imports peaked at 395,000 barrels per day (4% of China's total) in 2020 after the Phase 1 trade deal but fell to 193,000 bpd ($6 billion) in 2024. China has imported no US oil since May 2025 due to a 20% tariff, substituting with Canadian and Brazilian crude.

Ethane/Propane: Trade continues despite tensions. The US is China's sole ethane supplier, with 5.95 million tons ($2.96 billion) imported in 2025 and Q1 2026 imports up 50% year-over-year. US propane exports to China exceeded $6.6 billion in 2025, maintaining its position as China's largest supplier.