Wall Street and Main Street bulls reclaim half the market as traders look to potential Iran deal and April jobs report for direction

• The Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed Wall Street and Main Street evenly split, with 50% expecting higher prices next week and 31% predicting further declines, as traders weigh Iran conflict resolution prospects against elevated oil prices
• Gold hit a weekly low near $4,510 per ounce mid-week following Fed policy signals highlighting divisions among policymakers and dampening near-term rate cut expectations, though analysts note underlying drivers like global debt and currency risks remain intact
• Next week's key economic calendar includes the April employment report on Friday, preceded by ISM Services PMI, JOLTS data, ADP employment figures, and jobless claims, with analysts warning gold could test support at $4,400-$4,500 if current levels fail

Market Summary: Gold Volatility Continues Amid Mixed Sentiment

Key Price Movement:

Gold declined nearly 2% for the week, trading at $4,613.83 per ounce at week's end. Prices opened at $4,685.50, spiked to $4,730, then fell to weekly lows near $4,510 on Wednesday before a modest Friday rebound.

Primary Market Drivers:

• Rising oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar pushed Treasury yields higher, reinforcing expectations for prolonged elevated interest rates
• Federal Reserve policy signals highlighted divisions among policymakers, dampening near-term rate cut expectations
• Ongoing Middle East conflict and potential Iran deal negotiations created uncertainty
• Inflation concerns reduced appeal of non-yielding bullion

Market Sentiment:

The Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed 50% of Wall Street and Main Street analysts expecting gains next week, while 31% predicted further declines. Sentiment has grown cautiously optimistic about potential Iran conflict resolution.

Expert Perspectives:

Daniel Pavilonis (RJO Futures) noted gold moving inversely to oil alongside equities in a "risk-on" environment. He emphasized underlying drivers remain intact—heavy debt levels, currency risks, and interest rate concerns—predicting momentum above $5,000.

Adam Button (Forexlive.com) noted global central banks are 50 basis points more hawkish than two months ago. He sees Trump's policies creating inflation through government stimulus, tariffs, and AI capex spending, calling improvisation "bullish for gold."

CPM Group issued a sell recommendation with a target of $4,500 by May 15, warning of potential further declines to $4,400.

Key Support Levels:

Analysts identified $4,495-$4,500 as critical support, with a break potentially signaling movement toward $4,400 or lower.