Global economy is at a crossroads with recent energy shocks, says JPMorgan's Bruce Kasman

• The global economy is currently showing healthy momentum in Q1, driven by strong tech demand and improving labor markets, with US job growth expected to exceed 100,000 per month.
• However, a building energy price drag and geopolitical tensions (implied Russia-Ukraine conflict) create significant risks, including potential non-linear oil price increases if the conflict is not resolved quickly.
• JPMorgan assesses global recession risk at an elevated 35% under an adverse scenario, with the threat of reaching operational stress levels in about a month.
• The Fed is currently expressing patience, acting as an anchor for global markets, but is expected to face pressure to hike rates in 6-9 months in a constructive scenario, given persistent 3% inflation and a tight labor supply.

JPMorgan's Chief Economist Bruce Kasman discusses the global economy being at a crossroads, facing a 'tug-of-war' between healthy tech and labor market momentum and significant energy price shocks. He warns of potential non-linear oil price increases due to geopolitical tensions and an elevated 35% global recession risk, while noting the Fed's current patience but future pressure to hike rates.