Ford hikes 2026 profit outlook despite aluminum cost headwinds

• Ford recorded $2.5 billion net profit in Q1 and expects $1.3 billion in tariff refunds from a February Supreme Court ruling that struck down Trump-era tariffs
• F-150 pickup production dropped an estimated 12% year-over-year in Q1, with inventory down 38% in April, due to fires at aluminum supplier Novelis whose recovery may take until September
• Ford's stock gained 20% over 12 months while rival GM rose over 60% after reporting 22% profit growth and raising its own forecast with a $500 million expected tariff refund

Ford Hikes 2026 Profit Outlook Despite Aluminum Cost Headwinds

Ford Motor raised its 2026 annual earnings guidance by $500 million on Wednesday, increasing its projected EBIT to $8.5-10.5 billion from the previous $8-10 billion range. The upward revision comes primarily from an expected $1.3 billion tariff refund following a February Supreme Court ruling that struck down certain Trump-era tariffs. The automaker reported a net profit of $2.5 billion for the first quarter.

However, the guidance increase fell short of the full refund amount due to rising material costs, particularly for aluminum. Ford faces $1 billion in net tariff costs for the year, exacerbated by supply disruptions from two major fires at Novelis, its primary U.S. aluminum supplier. Production at the affected New York plant is expected to resume between May and September, though Novelis anticipates late second-quarter recovery.

The supply issues have significantly impacted Ford's F-150 pickup truck, America's best-selling vehicle for over 40 years and a critical profit driver. F-150 inventory dropped 38% year-over-year in April, while F-Series production declined an estimated 12% in the first quarter—worse than anticipated. JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman suggested Ford may be struggling more than expected to recover from the Novelis fires.

Ford's total vehicle sales fell 9% in the first quarter, with roughly half attributable to lower EV and hybrid demand. The results contrast with rival General Motors, which reported a 22% rise in quarterly core profit and received a $500 million tariff refund.

Ford's stock has risen approximately 20% over the past year, lagging GM's 60% gain during the same period.