Is UAE's exit the beginning of the end for OPEC?

• UAE's exit from OPEC could have a more significant long-term impact on oil markets than the Iran war.
• This departure cuts OPEC's capacity by about 15% and weakens Saudi Arabia's ability to enforce compliance within the group.
• The U.S. is poised to gain greater influence over oil supply through flexibility and sanctions, potentially leading other OPEC members like Venezuela to follow suit.

Saul Kavonic argues that the UAE's potential exit from OPEC is a pivotal moment, signaling the 'beginning of the end' for OPEC's long-term influence on global oil markets. This shift represents a significant geopolitical realignment, benefiting consuming nations and increasing the U.S.'s leverage in shaping future oil dynamics.