Investor Peter Boockvar worries the market is becoming 'too nonchalant'

• The market has exhibited complacency, evidenced by a rapid V-shape rally and a low CNN Fear & Greed Index reading at the end of March.
• Boockvar predicts that a 'Strait of Hormuz reopening' (referring to general geopolitical de-escalation) won't magically restore the pre-war economic backdrop, and supply chain issues will remain acute.
• He is particularly bullish on commodities, forecasting that prices will remain high, with oil settling at a 'new normal' of $85, up from a previous $65, due to global stockpiling.
• He expects elevated commodity prices to keep interest rates sticky at current or higher levels, citing rising JGB and German Bund yields.

Peter Boockvar warns that the market is becoming 'too nonchalant' about significant geopolitical risks and their economic fallout. He highlights persistent supply chain disruptions and predicts that commodity prices, particularly oil, will remain elevated even after any conflict resolution, leading to sticky inflation and higher interest rates. This outlook suggests a cautious stance on the broader market despite recent rallies.