Fertiliser costs weigh on maize as EU farmers plant spring crops

• Maize is highly fertilizer-intensive and requires energy-intensive drying in Western Europe, making it vulnerable to cost increases from Middle East conflict
• France's grain maize area could shrink by 200,000 hectares as farmers favor oilseed crops with better margins, though planting is 56% complete versus five-year average
• Germany may buck the trend with a 3.5% increase to 507,000 hectares as farmers' pre-war fertilizer purchases shield them from price spikes

European Maize Planting Declines Amid Rising Fertilizer and Energy Costs

European Union maize plantings are expected to fall below 8 million hectares in 2026 for the first time this century, driven by escalating input costs linked to the Iran war. Maize, one of the most fertilizer-intensive grain crops, faces mounting challenges from rising fertilizer and energy prices, alongside low profit margins and extreme weather risks.

Regional Impact:

France is projected to experience the sharpest decline, with grain maize area expected to shrink 10-15% this year—a loss of approximately 200,000 hectares, according to growers group AGPM. Farmers are shifting toward oilseed crops like sunflower seed, which offer better margins. Despite dry conditions accelerating planting progress (56% sown by Monday, ahead of the five-year average), upcoming rain in early May will be critical for crop development.

Poland's grain maize area is forecast to decline slightly from 1.3 million hectares to approximately 1.25 million hectares. Analyst Wojtek Sabaranski notes that recent maize price strength and limited planting alternatives may moderate the decline despite rising fertilizer costs.

Germany stands as an outlier, with grain maize sowings expected to increase 3.5% to 507,000 hectares. The country's farm cooperatives benefited from pre-war fertilizer purchases, insulating growers from recent price spikes unless additional supplies are needed.

Market Implications:

The combination of high fertilizer costs (driven by Middle East conflict), energy-intensive drying requirements, and drought concerns is fundamentally reshaping European crop selection. Analysts from Expana and Argus Media emphasize that accumulated risks are pushing farmers away from maize toward less input-intensive alternatives, potentially affecting EU grain supplies and prices.