We have no war, we have no peace, and we have no flows: strategist

• Ceasefire is positive, but more good news is needed for the Strait of Hormuz to fully reopen.
• Trump's 'shoot to kill' order is seen as inflammatory, delaying a resolution rather than accelerating it.
• Oil markets are characterized as being in a state of 'no war, no peace, and no flows' through the Strait of Hormuz.
• BNP Paribas Markets 360 remains skeptical about a fast resolution, predicting a 'delay case' for resuming full oil flows.
• Onshore stock draws will be a critical signpost indicating a structural problem in oil markets, potentially leading to higher prices.

Aldo Spanjer discusses the geopolitical situation impacting energy markets, specifically the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon and Trump's stance on the Strait of Hormuz. He expresses skepticism about a quick resolution to tensions, warning of continued delays in oil flows and potential structural problems in oil markets.