How the Iran Conflict Affected Oil Prices and the Future Outlook

• Brent crude gained 51% in March alone, one of the largest monthly oil price increases on record, as Iranian attacks closed Gulf navigation and halted energy production from Qatar to Iraq
• The war began February 28 with joint U.S.-Israel strikes killing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, followed by Iranian retaliation against Gulf infrastructure and energy facilities
• Analysts expect Brent to stabilize in the $80-90 range if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, but supply chain damage and production outages will prevent a full return to pre-crisis levels around $72

Market Summary: Iran Conflict and Oil Price Impact

Key Developments

Brent crude oil has surged over 55% since the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran began on February 28, 2026, jumping from approximately $72 per barrel to nearly $120 at its peak. March recorded one of the largest monthly oil price increases in history, with Brent gaining 51% as Gulf production collapsed and exports through the Strait of Hormuz were disrupted.

Critical Timeline Events

February 28: Joint U.S.-Israel strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering Iranian attacks on Gulf infrastructure and halting regional energy exports.

March 2-9: Oil prices spiked as Tehran attacked ships and energy facilities, closing Gulf navigation. UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait cut output amid storage constraints.

March 18: Iran struck Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, a major LNG hub, escalating the crisis further.

March 23: Brent briefly dipped below $100 on ceasefire speculation.

April 7: President Trump agreed to a two-week military suspension after threatening Iran's "whole civilization."

April 13-21: Prices jumped following a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports. Iran briefly reopened the Strait of Hormuz on April 17 (sending prices lower), then re-imposed controls after the U.S. seized an Iranian vessel.

Market Outlook

The Strait of Hormuz remains functionally closed as the two-week ceasefire nears expiration. Analysts expect an immediate $10-20 price drop if the strait reopens, though supply chain damage and production outages would likely anchor Brent in the $80-90 range. Without sustained flow restoration, further price increases may be necessary to reduce demand. Commodity analyst Rory Johnston calls this "the largest oil supply shock in the history of the oil market."