Green light, red light

• Oil prices fell 6% on Monday after rising 8% on Friday, but remain below $100 per barrel; approximately 20 ships passed through the strait on Saturday, the most since March 1
• Markets expect oil supply normalization to take 8-12 weeks under ideal conditions, though full recovery could take months or years
• Asian and European stocks showed muted reactions to Middle East tensions, with tech sector strength and upcoming Magnificent Seven earnings (Tesla reporting Wednesday) driving market sentiment

Market Summary: Middle East Tensions and Tech Rally Drive Global Markets

Key Developments:

Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to create volatility after a Friday ceasefire quickly unraveled over the weekend when Iran resumed hostilities due to ongoing U.S. port blockades. Iranian troops fired on tankers, prompting renewed conflict. A two-week ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday, though U.S. envoys are reportedly heading to Islamabad for peace talks, which Tehran has dismissed.

Market Impact:

Oil prices fell 5% on Monday following a 7% surge Friday, though crude remains below $100 per barrel. Notably, 20 ships transited the strait on Saturday—the highest volume since March 1. Asian stock markets showed less reaction to tensions than in previous months, while European markets slipped and the dollar weakened.

U.S. markets demonstrated resilience, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq achieving its 13th consecutive day of gains—the first such streak since 1992. Markets rose over 1% Friday, with tech optimism overshadowing geopolitical concerns. Tesla leads Magnificent Seven earnings reports Wednesday.

Other Notable Items:

• China held key interest rates unchanged Monday
• British PM Keir Starmer faces political pressure over security vetting of former U.S. ambassador Peter Mandelson, who was dismissed over Jeffrey Epstein links
• Markets appear more concerned about potential Labour Party leadership changes than new elections
• Recovery of oil flows through Hormuz could take 8-12 weeks minimum, potentially months or years to reach pre-war levels

Upcoming: Canada March CPI data (8:30 AM EDT), continued diplomatic developments.