Value of global dealmaking recovers as firms pursue big transactions after Iran war

• The weekly deal value of $117 billion from mid-March onward exceeded the $93 billion weekly run-rate seen in January-February, though smaller deals declined due to geopolitical and macroeconomic concerns
• Gulf region M&A involving target companies fell 65% year-over-year to nearly $15 billion in 2026, with deal announcements dropping from 70 in February to just 37 in March after conflict began
• Equity capital markets slowed post-conflict, averaging $11 billion weekly from mid-March versus $18 billion in February, while the VIX volatility index has cooled below 20 in April signaling more stable conditions

Summary

Global dealmaking has rebounded strongly following a sharp decline triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026. Deal values plummeted to approximately $39 billion in the second week of March—the lowest since April 2025's tariff announcement—but have since recovered significantly.

Key Data Points:

• Average weekly M&A value from March 15 reached $117 billion across four weeks, exceeding the $93 billion weekly rate from January-February
• Major transactions driving recovery include Pershing Square's $68 billion proposed deal for Universal Music Group and McCormick & Co's $45 billion transaction with Unilever's food portfolio
• Gulf region M&A totaled nearly $15 billion in 2026, down 65% year-over-year, with deal announcements dropping from 70 in February to 37 in March
• Gulf entities as buyers saw acquisition values reach $17.1 billion in the six weeks post-conflict, up 244% from the prior period

Market Implications:

Large, strategic transactions already in development continue progressing despite volatility, while smaller deals have declined. Equity capital markets (ECM) activity slowed, with average weekly values falling to $11 billion from $18 billion in February. The CBOE Volatility Index has cooled below 20 in April, signaling stabilizing conditions.

Outlook:

Industry leaders from Citi, Goldman Sachs, and UBS indicate that while geopolitical tensions create short-term uncertainty, long-term deal fundamentals remain strong. Strategic needs for scale, cost efficiency, and capex financing continue driving activity. However, the IMF's recession warning poses risks if the conflict escalates further.