Market is reading disinformation as bullish sign, says strategist

• Iran's strategy involves prolonging negotiations to keep oil prices high and influence US policy, playing on US public opinion regarding gasoline prices.
• The US is blockading Iranian ports, impacting Iran's economic capacity, but Iran has a higher pain threshold than the US consumer/president.
• Markets are currently pricing in a bullish scenario of de-escalation, but the underlying nuclear issue remains unresolved, suggesting potential for future re-escalation.
• The US President's incentives may shift from short-term election concerns to long-term national security objectives, potentially leading to more stringent actions against Iran.

The strategist warns that financial markets are overly optimistic about the de-escalation of US-Iran tensions, driven by 'disinformation' and a misjudgment of pain thresholds. He predicts potential re-escalation and continued nuclear issues, urging investors not to be complacent about the crisis's long-term impact on oil prices and the global economy.