Q1 2026 Corporate Earnings Preview: Double-Digit Growth and the Visibility Gap

• Goldman Sachs reported record equities revenue of $5.33 billion (up 27%) and investment banking fees jumped 48% to $2.84 billion, though FICC trading fell 10% year-over-year
• Nine of eleven S&P sectors expect positive earnings growth, led by Information Technology (45%), Materials (24.2%), and Financials (15.1%), while Health Care is projected to decline 9.8%
• Companies are increasingly withdrawing guidance amid a 'wait-and-see' approach, with peak earnings season expected April 27-May 15 and only 48% of companies having confirmed reporting dates

Q1 2026 Corporate Earnings Preview Summary

Key Earnings Developments:

Goldman Sachs kicked off Q1 2026 earnings season with strong results, marking a rare departure from JPMorgan Chase's traditional leadership position—the first time since 2018. The investment bank exceeded analyst expectations, reporting record equities revenues of $5.33 billion (up 27% YoY) driven by prime financing strength. However, FICC trading declined 10% YoY due to softer conditions in interest rates and mortgages. Investment banking fees surged 48% to $2.84 billion, fueled by increased M&A and debt underwriting activity. Credit loss provisions rose marginally to $315 million, reflecting cautious lending sentiment.

Broader Market Outlook:

The S&P 500 is projected to deliver 12.6% YoY EPS growth—its sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit expansion. Revenue growth is expected at 9.8% YoY, the strongest since Q3 2022. Full-year 2026 EPS growth is forecasted at 17.6%.

Sector Performance:

Nine of eleven S&P sectors anticipate positive YoY EPS growth, led by Information Technology (45.0%), Materials (24.2%), and Financials (15.1%). Energy (-0.1%), Communication Services (-3.3%), and Health Care (-9.8%) face headwinds.

Emerging Concern - Guidance Withdrawals:

Constellation Brands withdrew long-term guidance, echoing a troubling trend from Q1 2025 when companies including Delta, GM, and Stellantis pulled forecasts amid tariff uncertainty. Delta recently issued a cautious Q2 outlook citing fuel headwinds despite record Q1 revenues.

Upcoming Reports:

JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup report today. Peak earnings season runs April 27-May 15, with May 7 expected as the busiest day (1,167 reports). Investors will closely monitor consumer health indicators, credit card delinquencies, and commentary on the competitive private credit market amid geopolitical uncertainty clouding second-half visibility.