Iran war will hit global growth hard: IMF

• IMF's 'reference forecast' assumes a quick resolution to the Iran war, projecting 3.1% global growth this year, a 0.3 percentage point downward revision.
• More severe scenarios, involving persistent energy price increases, could see global growth fall to 2.5%.
• Further damage to infrastructure could push global growth down to just 2%, a level previously seen only during severe crises like the Global Financial Crisis and COVID-19.
• Commodity-importing emerging markets and developing nations with existing fragilities are expected to be the hardest hit.

The IMF warns that the Iran war will significantly hit global growth, presenting various scenarios. Even under the most benign forecast, global growth is expected to be 3.1% this year, a 0.3 percentage point downgrade. More severe scenarios could see growth fall to 2.5% or even 2%, numbers historically associated with severe crises.