Citadel's Ken Griffin says Iran war threatens global recession

• Griffin stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed 'for all intents and purposes' for 6-12 months, the world will enter recession
• He noted the Iranian military remains 'very much intact' despite U.S. air strikes destroying 'every single target you can strike from the sky'
• Griffin defended Trump's decision to strike Iran, arguing delays of several years would have been 'far more dire' given developments in Iranian missile technology

Summary

Key Development: Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession, speaking at the Semafor World Economy Forum on April 14, 2026.

Main Warning: Griffin stated that if the strait remains closed for six to twelve months, the world economy will likely enter recession. He emphasized that uninterrupted energy flow from the Middle East is critical to global macroeconomic stability, calling this a "very, very treacherous moment for the world economy."

Context: The comments follow U.S. military strikes on Iran six weeks prior, ordered by President Trump. Griffin, a Republican donor who voted for Trump in 2024, offered mixed assessment of the action. While noting that American air strikes "destroyed every single target you can strike from the sky," he acknowledged surprise at the resilience of Iran's military, which remains "very much intact."

Strategic Perspective: Griffin suggested the timing may have been necessary, arguing that delaying action several years could have produced "far more dire" consequences given Iran's advancing missile technology capable of striking Israel. He characterized Trump's decision as difficult but historically significant.

Market Implications: The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Any extended disruption would severely impact energy markets and global supply chains, with recessionary consequences across major economies. The warning underscores heightened geopolitical risk to financial markets and energy prices.

Related Impact: Zambia announced it will forgo approximately $200 million in revenue by suspending fuel taxes to cushion economic impacts from the Iran conflict.