Morning Bid: Blockade takes its toll

• U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in nearly four years in March, with gasoline prices accounting for most of the increase; Trump acknowledged gas prices may stay elevated through November midterm elections
• Hungary's Viktor Orban was ousted after 16 years as opposition leader Peter Magyar won a landslide election, potentially unlocking 18 billion euros in frozen EU funds and strengthening ties with the EU
• Q1 U.S. earnings season begins with Goldman Sachs reporting today; S&P 500 companies expected to post 14% earnings growth year-over-year despite oil shock concerns

Market Summary: U.S. Blockade of Iranian Ports Pressures Markets

Key Developments:

President Trump ordered a U.S. Navy blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, effective 10 a.m. EDT Monday, after peace talks in Islamabad failed over the weekend. The escalation is reversing last week's relief rally following a two-week ceasefire announcement.

Market Impact:

• Oil: Both Brent and WTI crude surpassed $100 per barrel. Brent has surged 40% since conflict began, though prices remain below last week's pre-ceasefire highs
• Equities: Wall Street futures declined; European stocks slipped in early trading but recovered partially
• Currency: U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies initially, later paring gains

Inflation Concerns:

U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in nearly four years in March, driven primarily by gasoline costs. Trump acknowledged gas prices may remain elevated through November midterm elections or rise further, suggesting domestic political pressure won't quickly end the conflict.

Other Significant News:

Hungary's Viktor Orban was defeated after 16 years in power. Winner Peter Magyar's party secured a two-thirds parliamentary majority, expected to improve EU relations. The Hungarian forint and bonds rallied, potentially unlocking 18 billion euros in frozen EU funds.

Earnings Season:

Q1 U.S. earnings begin with Goldman Sachs reporting Monday. Major companies including Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and PepsiCo report this week. S&P 500 earnings expected to grow 14% year-over-year, with analysts raising full-year estimates despite oil shock concerns.

Upcoming Events:

IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings begin in Washington; U.S. existing home sales data; OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report release.