Standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, new inflation data, Warsh's Senate hearing and more in Morning Squawk

CNBC | April 10, 2026 at 12:25 PM UTC
Neutral 84% Confidence Split Agreement
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Key Points

  • Oil prices rose as Iran reportedly continues blocking tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with Trump warning Iran to 'stop now' amid ceasefire violations including Israeli attacks on Lebanon
  • February core PCE inflation came in at 3% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target, with March CPI data due April 10 to provide a more current inflation picture post-Iran conflict
  • Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation hearing for Fed chair has been postponed beyond the expected April 16 date due to missing required paperwork, while Sen. Thom Tillis vows to block any Fed nominees until DOJ ends its probe into current Chair Jerome Powell

AI Summary

Market Summary: Geopolitical Tensions and Inflation Data

Key Developments:

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: U.S. oil prices are rising as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains halted despite Tuesday's U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated attacks on Lebanon would resume "as soon as possible," which Iran's parliamentary speaker cited as a ceasefire breach. Trump warned Iran via social media to stop blocking strait access. Despite tensions, major averages are tracking significant weekly gains, with the S&P 500 posting its best week since November and turning positive year-to-date.

Inflation Data: February's PCE index rose 2.8% year-over-year, matching estimates, while core PCE increased 3%—both above the Federal Reserve's target. This pre-conflict data provides baseline inflation readings before energy price spikes. March CPI data releases Friday at 8:30 AM ET for a more current assessment.

Tech Sector: OpenAI is reassuring investors as competitor Anthropic gains traction. Meta announced increased AI infrastructure spending, while Amazon CEO Andy Jassy defended the company's AI investments in his annual letter, signaling continued sector commitment.

Regulatory & Political: Kevin Warsh's Senate Banking Committee hearing for Fed chair nomination is delayed due to incomplete paperwork, though expected soon. Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends next month. The DOJ is investigating the NFL for potential anticompetitive practices related to media rights negotiations and streaming deals.

Market Implications: Energy prices remain volatile amid Middle East tensions, while persistent inflation above Fed targets complicates monetary policy decisions. Tech companies continue aggressive AI spending despite competitive pressures.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Claude 4.5 Haiku Neutral 78%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Neutral 84%