Australia delays resources outlook over 'extreme volatility' due to Iran war

• Oil prices surged 50% in March during the conflict, benefiting Australia's LNG sector (75% of exports linked to oil prices) but raising production costs for miners dependent on diesel imports
• The delayed forecasts are key inputs for Australia's May federal budget; the December outlook had projected export earnings of A$369 billion ($260 billion) for 2025-26, down 5% year-over-year
• Growing calls for a 25% 'super profits' tax on LNG exporters amid record revenues, while the country faces criticism over energy security due to heavy reliance on imported refined fuels

Summary

Australia has postponed its quarterly Resources and Energy Quarterly (REQ) report for the first time due to "extreme volatility" stemming from the U.S.-Israel war against Iran. The publication, originally scheduled for late March 2026, will now be released at the end of June 2026.

Key Developments:

The delay affects critical forecasts needed for Australia's federal budget due in May. The REQ provides two-year outlooks for major mining and energy exports plus a five-year macro outlook, serving as key inputs for budget planning.

Market Impact:

Australia's December 2025 forecast projected export earnings from mining and energy would decline 5% to A$369 billion ($260.48 billion) in 2025-26, with a further drop to A$354 billion the following year. However, the geopolitical crisis has dramatically altered market conditions.

Oil prices surged 50% in March 2026 before declining after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire. Prices have since rebounded due to uncertainty around the fragile peace deal and frozen tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

LNG Sector Focus:

Australia expects significant gains in liquefied natural gas (LNG) earnings, as over 75% of exports are oil-price linked with a 3-6 month lag. Spot cargoes are selling at record prices, prompting calls for a 25% windfall tax on LNG super profits. Australia's Treasury is reportedly examining this proposal, though the government hasn't confirmed.

Challenges:

Rising diesel prices are increasing production costs for miners, some of whom face supply difficulties. Australia's heavy reliance on imported refined fuels has drawn criticism regarding energy security planning, especially amid significant price hikes and supply disruptions since the Iran conflict began in late February 2026.