Morning Brief: Relief Rally Halts

• Brent and WTI crude topped $98 per barrel as Iran threatened to 'target and destroy' vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, where daily shipping traffic has fallen to less than 10% of historical averages
• Weekend peace talks remain scheduled, but Iran claims Israeli strikes in Lebanon violate ceasefire terms while President Trump rejected scaling back military threats
• U.S. February PCE inflation data expected to show prices rising 0.4% for a second month, even before the latest energy price spike, while Fed minutes revealed some policymakers favored pausing rate cuts

Market Summary: Relief Rally Halts on Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty

Key Developments:

Global markets paused their relief rally on Thursday, April 9, 2026, as the recently agreed two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire showed signs of fragility, with both parties disputing the deal's terms.

Energy Markets:

Oil prices surged, with Brent and WTI crude topping $98 per barrel before retreating slightly. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with daily shipping traffic plummeting to less than 10% of historical averages since the U.S.-Iran conflict began. Iranian coastguards warned vessels sailing without permission would be "targeted and destroyed," and Tehran is considering levying tolls on transit through the waterway.

Equity Markets:

After Wednesday's gains, Asian markets declined Thursday, with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI both falling. European markets opened in the red as uncertainty over the ceasefire's durability weighed on sentiment.

Currency Markets:

The dollar traded mixed while the yen retreated to around 159 per dollar, giving back Wednesday's gains.

Ceasefire Tensions:

Iran claimed Israeli strikes in Lebanon violate ceasefire terms, though weekend peace talks remain scheduled for Saturday. President Trump responded with military threats, raising doubts about whether the agreement represents a genuine breakthrough.

Economic Data:

Traders await February's PCE inflation report, expected to show U.S. prices rising 0.4% for the second consecutive month—before factoring in recent energy price spikes. Fed minutes revealed policymakers remain divided on monetary policy direction, though "many participants" favor rate cuts given potential economic growth risks from the conflict.

Market Implications:

The ongoing energy shock threatens inflationary pressures, slowing Wednesday's Treasury rally and maintaining uncertainty across global markets.