Jeremy Siegel on Fed: Put rate cuts on hold and will be neutral for a while 'at best'

CNBC Television | April 07, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC
Neutral 95% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Best scenario: A firm deal with Iran could lead to a 1000-point Dow rally and all-time market highs.
  • Second scenario: A delay in the Iran deadline due to promising negotiations could result in a relief rally.
  • Worst scenario: Significant damage to oil infrastructure from an Iranian response would lead to substantial market downside.
  • Fed policy: Given geopolitical developments and increasing fiscal expansion/inflationary pressures, the Fed should put rate cuts on hold and remain neutral for a while.

AI Summary

Jeremy Siegel discusses four potential scenarios for the market based on the evolving situation with Iran, ranging from a firm deal leading to new market highs to a worst-case scenario involving significant damage to oil infrastructure. He suggests that a delay in the Iran deadline or a weak military response from Iran could lead to a relief rally. Siegel also advises the Fed to put rate cuts on hold due to increased fiscal expansion and inflationary pressures.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Neutral 95%
Consensus Neutral 95%