Morning Bid: Final countdown?

• Brent crude initially rose above $111/barrel and WTI topped $116/barrel before paring gains as Trump's Iran ultimatum approaches; the dollar index hovers near 100 after hitting its highest level since May 2025
• Samsung forecasted Q1 operating profit of $37.92 billion, an eightfold jump year-over-year that exceeds its entire 2025 annual profit, driven by the AI boom in memory chips
• The IMF warned that 'all roads' lead to higher prices and slower growth, while U.S. ISM services data showed slowing growth and the steepest rise in input prices, signaling emerging inflation pressures from the energy shock

Market Summary: Iran Deadline Drives Uncertainty Across Global Markets

Key Developments:

Global markets entered wait-and-see mode as President Trump's 8 p.m. EDT deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approaches. Tehran has rejected demands to reopen the vital waterway and accept a ceasefire, despite Trump's threats of military action, leaving investors braced for potential escalation.

Market Movements:

• Oil: Brent crude initially spiked above $111/barrel before retreating; WTI crude hovers around $113/barrel after briefly topping $116
• Equities: Global stocks mixed with Asian indexes largely flat and European markets rising modestly; U.S. stock futures roughly flat
• Currency: Dollar index holding just under 100 (highest since May 2025); yen weakening near 160-per-dollar

Economic Indicators:

U.S. services sector growth slowed in March while input prices rose at the fastest pace on record, signaling emerging inflation pressures from the energy shock. March CPI data due Friday will provide further clarity.

The IMF warned Monday that "all roads" lead to higher prices and slower growth, according to Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

Notable Corporate News:

Samsung forecasted record Q1 operating profit of 57.2 trillion won ($37.92 billion)—exceeding its entire 2025 annual profit—driven by the AI boom. This represents an eightfold increase from the prior year's 6.69 trillion won.

Outlook:

Uncertainty remains elevated as markets await Trump's response to Iran's defusal. Pakistan-led mediation efforts continue, though optimism faded after Tehran rejected short-term truce proposals.