Tchir: 3% to 5% Stock Pullback Likely, Stay Overweight on Energy

• Peter Tchir is 'highly suspect' that a ceasefire will occur in Iran, expecting continued escalation.
• He anticipates a 3-5% pullback in stocks if the U.S.-Iran conflict escalates, advising to sell into the current rally.
• He recommends being overweight on energy stocks (XOP, XLE, OIH, British Petroleum, Shell, Total) and likes Intel (INTC) as part of a 'production for security and resiliency' trade.
• He expresses concern about the 'working poor' and increasing affordability issues in the economy, driven by rising electricity and other costs.

Peter Tchir is highly skeptical of a ceasefire in Iran, predicting a potential 3-5% pullback in stocks if the conflict escalates. He advises selling into current rallies and favors energy stocks (especially European) and chip manufacturers like Intel, aligning with a 'production for security and resiliency' trade amidst global geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown concerns.