OPEC+ Considers Potential Oil Production Increase Amid Iran Conflict, Sources Report

• The war has removed 12-15 million barrels per day (up to 15% of global supply) from markets, the largest disruption on record, pushing crude prices near $120 per barrel with potential to exceed $150 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into mid-May
• Key OPEC+ Gulf producers with spare capacity are unable to increase output due to severe infrastructure damage from missile and drone attacks, with officials estimating months needed to resume normal operations even if the war stopped immediately
• Any production increase would be 'academic' and exist only on paper in the short term, though it would signal OPEC+'s readiness to raise output once the Strait of Hormuz reopens

OPEC+ Oil Production Increase Summary

Key Development:

OPEC+ is set to meet on April 5 to discuss a potential oil output increase for May, though sources indicate this will be largely symbolic as key producers lack capacity to actually raise production.

Crisis Context:

The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz—the world's most critical oil chokepoint—since late February, creating the largest oil supply disruption on record. The crisis has removed an estimated 12-15 million barrels per day from global markets, representing up to 15% of global supply.

Affected Producers:

The conflict has crippled exports from the only OPEC+ members with significant spare capacity: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq. Russia faces constraints due to Western sanctions and war-related infrastructure damage, while Gulf producers have suffered severe damage from missile and drone attacks. Officials estimate it would take months to resume normal operations even if hostilities ceased immediately.

Market Impact:

• Crude prices have surged to a four-year high near $120 per barrel
• Prices could spike above $150/barrel—an all-time high—if Hormuz disruptions continue into mid-May
• At the March 1 meeting, OPEC+ approved a modest 206,000 bpd increase for April, just as the conflict began

Outlook:

Any production increase approved would be "academic" according to consultancy Energy Aspects, serving primarily as a signal of readiness to boost output once the Strait of Hormuz reopens. The decision carries minimal immediate supply impact given current infrastructure damage and logistical constraints.