US jobs market surpassed expectations in March but February losses were worse than first reported

• Revisions show January and February employment was 7,000 jobs lower than previously reported, with February losing 133,000 positions
• The 'quits rate' fell to 1.9%, the lowest since 2020, indicating workers are staying in jobs amid labor market uncertainty
• First quarter 2026 job cut announcements totaled 217,362, the lowest for that period since 2022, while hiring in February hit a six-year low

Summary: US Jobs Market Shows Mixed Signals in March 2026

Key Figures:

• March 2026: 178,000 jobs added, significantly beating economists' expectations of 70,000
• Unemployment rate fell to 4.3%
• February 2026: Revised to show a loss of 133,000 jobs (worse than initially reported)
• January 2026: Revised upward from 126,000 to 160,000 jobs
• Net revision impact: 7,000 fewer jobs than previously reported for January-February combined

Labor Market Context:

The job gains follow an extremely weak 2025, when only 116,000 jobs were added for the entire year—roughly equivalent to a single month's job growth in previous years. The market remains in a "low-fire, low-hire" state with reduced layoffs and hiring.

First quarter 2026 saw 217,362 announced job cuts (lowest since 2022), while February hiring slowed to a six-year low, particularly in construction, leisure, and hospitality sectors. The "quits rate" dropped to 1.9% (lowest since 2020), indicating worker uncertainty.

Market Implications:

Employers remain cautious amid inflation volatility. Consumer inflation steadied at 2.4% in early 2026 after fluctuating between 2.3% and 3% in 2025. However, the US-Israel-Iran conflict has driven average gas prices above $4 per gallon, raising concerns about broader inflationary pressures. Historical patterns suggest every $10 oil barrel increase adds 0.2% to inflation, echoing 2022's Ukraine invasion impact when gas reached $5 and inflation hit 9%.

The mixed data suggests tentative labor market improvement overshadowed by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns.