‘If he'd stayed on the golf course, we'd be in a better place': experts on Trump's tariffs, one year on

• US manufacturing employment fell by 100,000 jobs between January 2025 and March 2026, with manufacturing as a share of total employment dropping to its lowest level since 1939
• The US goods trade deficit expanded to an all-time high in 2025 despite tariffs aimed at reducing imports and boosting exports
• Investor sentiment toward US assets deteriorated as the dollar declined and capital flowed to Europe, Asia, and South America amid concerns over American economic stability

Summary: Trump Tariffs One Year Assessment

Key Event: On April 2, 2025, President Trump launched "liberation day," implementing sweeping tariffs on nearly all U.S. trading partners.

Economic Impact:

• The U.S. manufacturing sector lost 100,000 jobs between January 2025 and March 2026
• Manufacturing employment as a percentage of total employment fell to its lowest level since 1939
• The U.S. goods trade deficit expanded to an all-time high in 2025
• Payroll employment was revised down by 403,000 jobs for 2025, adding only 600,000 jobs total against 163 million employed
• Consumer confidence hit near-record lows by end of 2025 across all generations

Market Reaction:

• Dollar declined steadily against other currencies following inauguration
• Investors shifted assets from U.S. to Europe, Asia, and South America
• Brief recovery occurred on May 12, 2025 ("ceasefire day") when U.S.-China agreed to reduce tariff escalation
• U.S. stock market valuations remained elevated despite concerns

Analyst Assessment:

Experts characterized the tariff policy as a failure by the administration's own metrics. Dario Perkins (TS Lombard) and Bryan Riley (National Taxpayers Union Foundation) noted tariffs failed to shrink the trade deficit, revitalize manufacturing, or help farmers. Russ Mould (AJ Bell) warned investors are reassessing "American exceptionalism" amid tariffs, Federal Reserve independence concerns, and geopolitical aggression.

Winners: China emerged as a key beneficiary, with industrial profits increasing 15.2% in the year to February 2026. Some U.S. companies redirected investments to Europe.