Nasdaq set to fall as oil surges after Trump says we will 'hit Iran extremely hard'

Proactive Investors | April 02, 2026 at 01:55 PM UTC
Bearish 95% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • Oil prices surged 8.6% to nearly $108 per barrel (WTI crude) as investors price in prolonged disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz
  • Technology stocks are particularly affected, with pre-market declines in major names like Nvidia and Alphabet, while precious metals retreated
  • Trump's speech came after Wednesday's market close, which had seen gains (Nasdaq +1.2%, S&P 500 +0.7%, Dow +0.5%) based on expectations of diplomatic de-escalation

AI Summary

Market Summary: Nasdaq Futures Drop on Iran Escalation, Oil Surges

Key Market Movements:

US equity futures fell sharply Thursday morning, reversing Wednesday's gains after President Trump announced plans to "hit Iran extremely hard" over the next two to three weeks. Nasdaq futures declined 1.7%, S&P 500 futures dropped 1.3%, and Dow Jones futures fell 1.1%.

Previous Session Performance:

Wednesday saw positive closes with the Nasdaq gaining 1.2% to finish at 21,841, the S&P 500 rising 0.7% to 6,575, and the Dow Jones climbing 0.5% (224 points) to 46,566, driven by hopes for diplomatic resolution.

Commodity Impact:

Oil prices surged dramatically, with WTI crude jumping 8.6% to nearly $108 per barrel as investors priced in prolonged disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz. Precious metals retreated, with gold, silver, and copper all trading lower, indicating broad commodity market repositioning.

Sector Impact:

Technology stocks showed particular weakness in pre-market trading, with major players like Nvidia and Alphabet facing pressure. Treasury yields rose as investors shifted positioning ahead of expected volatility.

Economic Calendar:

Thursday's data releases include US weekly initial jobless claims, trade balance figures, and weekly natural gas storage. This represents the last trading day before Good Friday, though the critical March nonfarm payrolls report will still be released during the closure.

Market Implications:

The geopolitical escalation creates uncertainty around energy prices and broader market stability, with investors bracing for continued volatility as military operations extend over the coming weeks.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 95%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 95%
Consensus Bearish 95%